1997 Asian crisis

[Philipkee]

Based on cpi data inflation rose to 3.5%  which is far from FED's 2% target
The surest way is to put the economy down to mild recession to reach the 2% target
But  recession will be saved by rate cuts.
Powell still has many rate cuts card in his pocket so there won't be a crisis.
However FED's goal is to achieve 2% with a soft landing without putting the economy into a recession

When you say like this, what exactly is a recession objectively?  If let's say an economy is already in recession as in economy contracts as a whole but I reduce interest rates or even make it negative interest rates, the economy will suddenly not be in recession?

[Suntan]

Think u shd be right bah, u and @Nevereatrice are experts traded for decades

Moi not a trader but investor for dividends. There were a few stocks at above $40/lot, good dividend den. Very high risk if drop. Moi got no taim punt the market full taim due to full taim job. So, just buy blue chips.

The 2 very important indicators are interest rates and oil prices. Moi long term interest has always  been economics and biz, not financial markets and its instruments.

The rest such as stock and property are purely stirring by syndicates and property agents. Buyers just irrational. These had gone to become Irrational Markets.

[No guessing game]

When you say like this, what exactly is a recession objectively?  If let's say an economy is already in recession as in economy contracts as a whole but I reduce interest rates or even make it negative interest rates, the economy will suddenly not be in recession?

I not professional economist but if recession first signal is financial market will crash and go into bear market.
10 yr treasury yield will invert and uninvert based on past recession, massive unemployment
Recent data release shows employment went up companies are still hiring unemployment rate little changes. Us economy is still growing
bc ath at 70k
Fed has already raised the rates to 5.5% which makes borrowing for companies costly.
If recession rate cuts will reduce it to 0%  to save the economy based on past history.
There are other fiscal policies card haven't used yet.
Now the market is obsessed with rate cut instead of worrying  about recession.
Now No rate cuts=drop
Last time hike=drop
The Market is stupid these are just noises you should ignore if you don't know what you are doing and what's going on you will be worrying about the wrong things everyday
Look at Nvidia drop to 830 recently because of a mere cpi data. stupidity now back up at 907.

[default]

Unemployment rly low in US? With retrenchments?

[Suntan]

Unemployment rly low in US? With retrenchments?

Unemployed has welfare unlike here by household. Food essentials low cost.
Their economy self-sufficient for food.

[Philipkee]

I not professional economist but if recession first signal is financial market will crash and go into bear market.
10 yr treasury yield will invert and uninvert based on past recession, massive unemployment
Recent data release shows employment went up companies are still hiring unemployment rate little changes. Us economy is still growing
bc ath at 70k
Fed has already raised the rates to 5.5% which makes borrowing for companies costly.
If recession rate cuts will reduce it to 0%  to save the economy based on past history.
There are other fiscal policies card haven't used yet.
Now the market is obsessed with rate cut instead of worrying  about recession.
Now No rate cuts=drop
Last time hike=drop
The Market is stupid these are just noises you should ignore if you don't know what you are doing and what's going on you will be worrying about the wrong things everyday
Look at Nvidia drop to 830 recently because of a mere cpi data. stupidity now back up at 907.

Read before that market is emotion driven.

Why a stock price rises and falls a lot has to do with sentiments as opposed to actual profit and losses.  Same for economy.  If everyone tightens their belt the recession happens when actually everyone still have the same amount of cash and jobs.  But if everyone tightens too much for too long based merely on sentiment, recession becomes a self fulfilling prophecy

[No guessing game]

Read before that market is emotion driven.

Why a stock price rises and falls a lot has to do with sentiments as opposed to actual profit and losses.  Same for economy.  If everyone tightens their belt the recession happens when actually everyone still have the same amount of cash and jobs.  But if everyone tightens too much for too long based merely on sentiment, recession becomes a self fulfilling prophecy

Yea. Consumer sentiment is always a major factor in investment.
Right now the 3 defensive assets oil gold usd very high indicates the sentiment towards inflation is not so good we might see some more rate hikes from FED if the April data is not favorable 

[Shiori]

the world is deferring the next economic crisis fyi...

[Philipkee]

the world is deferring the next economic crisis fyi...

I heard it was supposed to happen a few years ago but covid stopped it in the sense that it caused an economic crisis that was blamed on Covid instead of economic factors.  Now that Covid is over, the economic issues are showing themselves

[nyvrem]

Unemployment rly low in US? With retrenchments?

dont believe everything CNN says.

unemployment in US is counted differently - its based on a week long survey of people

to be counted as unemployed u must not have a job and have been actively looking for a job over a 4 week period.

'looking for job' means must have gotten an interview etc.

if these 2 are not met, u will be pushed into the "not in workforce" group which does not count into the unemployed stats.

    

[Shiori]

I heard it was supposed to happen a few years ago but covid stopped it in the sense that it caused an economic crisis that was blamed on Covid instead of economic factors.  Now that Covid is over, the economic issues are showing themselves

that is correct, i agree with u

[No guessing game]

binary tool

Don't scare set sights your long term if u invested in the correct stocks otherwise u should be worrying.
Also there's always a possibility cpi data manipulated to keep the market cool

[default]

Cpi will show inflation still same bah