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炎杀黑龙波

Quote from: 老曾记 on Aug 13, 2025, 06:33 AM@Chao seng kor advised to apportion your funds into 3. Use 1/3 to trade. If it goes down u average down by using another 1/3... Risk management. Select strong companies that will eventually bounce back.

Thanks, this answer and it seems to be turning out into what I was thinking

Whack one stock (1/3 fund locked)
Fail then wait for average down (2/3 fund locked)
Whack another stock and failed again (3/3 fund locked and full bag holding mode)

Then need pump in more money again
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老曾记

Quote from: 炎杀黑龙波 on Aug 13, 2025, 08:02 AMThanks, this answer and it seems to be turning out into what I was thinking

Whack one stock (1/3 fund locked)
Fail then wait for average down (2/3 fund locked)
Whack another stock and failed again (3/3 fund locked and full bag holding mode)

Then need pump in more money again


Maybe $5k each time over 3 times. $300/day consistent gains a bit hard can try $100/day.
Please give me the strength to overcome everything.

炎杀黑龙波

Quote from: 老曾记 on Aug 13, 2025, 06:50 AMIf wan to find a $50 stock to raise $1, sounds like dbs price. 2% movement per day on dbs daily is usually happening on earnings seasons, other days not really... Usually got $0.30-0.50 movement on normal days, there are times flat. I used to scalp dbs with decent profits about $300 per day (for a short while) on non-earnings season but that require around $60k funds, some days in red I bag hold a while. Quite stressful don't wan use this amount liao.

The alternative is to lower target profits per day to fit the comfortable trading funds. With $15k funds maybe can target $100/day. Another alternative is to look for cheaper stocks like uob ($36/share) for the same amount of funds can buy more lots.

I'm tapping on the idea to scalp small profits and  win consistent amount and reduce stress level. 10k funds, $50/day profit average out also got $1k per mth to help cope with cost of living.

DBS I think just hold, from period that I have it so far, seems that any moment will fly off while you're trying to scalp it, end up you earn less by buying in at the higher price

But opinion based on recent 1 month only, didn't throw any money into DBS before that.

Before that was in ocbc, and it's a totally different feel, slow turtle that only move when close to earning or close to dividend
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老曾记

#1128
Quote from: 炎杀黑龙波 on Aug 13, 2025, 08:05 AMDBS I think just hold, from period that I have it so far, seems that any moment will fly off while you're trying to scalp it, end up you earn less by buying in at the higher price

But opinion based on recent 1 month only, didn't throw any money into DBS before that.

Before that was in ocbc, and it's a totally different feel, slow turtle that only move when close to earning or close to dividend


Dbs really fly when I release it and hopped to shengsiong.
Ocbc movement not a lot. Uob can be quite volatile too.

Tml uob and dbs ex-date liao.
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炎杀黑龙波

Quote from: Tuna Seng on Aug 13, 2025, 02:43 AMcrwv just hold regardless of result. it's business just started
once it builds its moat and volume starts coming in  then the real upside will come. many more upside to come

Crashed while I sleeping, too greedy already :s13:
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sTiCkY

hahaha who buy so much coreweave sia... then next thing it drop :s13:

haiz... anyway hope it picks up soon... friday coming...
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Tuna Seng


Chao seng

Quote from: 炎杀黑龙波 on Aug 12, 2025, 10:56 PMGot useful tips to share with us ma? Here only tuna and chao seng is pro

Nah..not a pro..I still have much to learn. Mkt always find a way to humble me.

Quote from: Tuna Seng on Aug 13, 2025, 12:52 AMday traders don't care about fundementals
@Chao seng  is a scalper the stocks he intro i always got take a look at their chart
his strategy is target stocks that are already lao sai at the bottom, going into consolidation.
then buy the dip. i know this strategy also. can scalp few hundreds a day if successful. profit target not so greedy a few cents to $1 on a smaller tf


Yup..started out as a scalper but more of a mixed trader now..doing both day and swing trades. Stock mkt is dynamic and ever changing..have to adjust strategies for different stocks as they don't always move the same way..due to their size, vol, sentiment and to a certain extent, manipulation.

And yes, can't be too greedy..it's quite the downfall for many failed traders.

Quote from: 炎杀黑龙波 on Aug 13, 2025, 08:02 AMThanks, this answer and it seems to be turning out into what I was thinking

Whack one stock (1/3 fund locked)
Fail then wait for average down (2/3 fund locked)
Whack another stock and failed again (3/3 fund locked and full bag holding mode)

Then need pump in more money again


That's why only use money you can afford to lose or foresee you won't need this sum of money in the short term (up to 6 mths)

If you have 20k only, allocate maybe half for trading. From the 10k, try to enter with a small position..don't rush to put everything in.

Target those strong stocks whenever there's an opportunity. If you want to play a weaker stock, lowball the entry price as much as possible. If never hit, so be it. There will always be an opportunity round the corner.


CheerS!!!😉
Be Kind To Your Children. Don't Have Any.

Tuna Seng

what do u think about yesterday's crwv earnings report and it's forward guidance? rating out of 5?

Here's a look at CoreWeave's (CRWV) Q2 2025 earnings report—which was released on August 12, 2025 (yesterday) after market close—and some thoughts, followed by a rating out of 5.



Summary of Key Highlights

** Revenue & Backlog**
   •   Revenue: $1.21 billion, beating estimates of ~$1.08 billion—about a 12% positive surprise (Investing.com)  � �.
   •   Year-over-Year Growth: Approximately a 207% increase from the previous year  � �.
   •   Revenue Backlog: Jumped to $30.1 billion as of June 30, up from $25.9 billion at the end of Q1  � � �.

** Profitability & Costs**
   •   Net Loss: A loss of $290.5 million came in worse than expected, eclipsing the consensus estimate of a $190.6 million loss  � � �.
   •   Margins: GAAP operating income was just $19.2 million (2% margin), versus 20% in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $753 million (62% margin)—a strong number, though slightly down from last year  � �.

** Company Commentary & Context**
   •   The CEO highlighted strong execution and scaling momentum: first to roll out the full NVIDIA Blackwell GPU portfolio at scale, new hyperscaler deals, and acquisition of Weights & Biases, among others  �.
   •   Still, there's pressure from supply constraints—especially around power shells and enabled infrastructure—as well as rising interest expense due to the capital needed to support aggressive expansion  � �.

** Stock Reaction & Analyst Sentiment**
   •   Stock initially dropped ~10% in after-hours trading following the earnings announcement  � �.
   •   JMP Securities maintained a Market Perform rating, noting the strong beats and revised outlook but urging caution about GPU-as-a-service dynamics  �.
   •   Mizuho reiterated a Neutral rating with a $150 price target, considering the 233% post-IPO rally and potential overvaluation  �.



My Take & Rating (Out of 5)

Strengths (Pros):
   •   Massive top-line growth—over 200% YoY—is a standout.
   •   Strong backlog signals durable demand and strong deal momentum.
   •   Adjusted operational metrics (EBITDA, adjusted op. income) are robust and show operational efficiency despite scaling.

Concerns (Cons):
   •   The deeper-than-expected net loss ($290M vs. $190M est.) raises red flags.
   •   Supply constraints and high infrastructure costs may restrict margin improvements.
   •   Aggressive expansion financed through debt is inflating interest costs, which could pressure profitability further.
   •   Stock reaction and cautious analyst stance suggest investor caution about sustainability and valuation.

Overall Rating: 3.5 out of 5
   •   Why not higher? The operational growth is genuinely impressive, but the hefty losses, structural scaling challenges, and supply constraints temper enthusiasm.
   •   Why above average? CoreWeave is clearly capitalizing on the surging AI infrastructure demand; revenue and backlog numbers are compelling.



Final Thoughts

CoreWeave delivered an eye-popping revenue beat and backlog growth, alongside operational improvements in adjusted profitability. That said, the widened net loss, supply chain issues, and investor wariness temper the upside. Their long-term success likely hinges on managing cost efficiency and infrastructure scalability amid booming AI demand.

Anything else you'd like to dig into—such as their acquisition strategy, GPU partnerships, or upcoming guidance?


Qn:
taken into consideration all the investments they make which affected the eps would you still rate 3.5 out of 5?

If we adjust the lens to focus on the strategic nature of their spending—rather than the short-term EPS hit—my rating shifts slightly higher.

Here's why:
   •   Capex-heavy AI infrastructure businesses like CRWV are front-loading costs to secure a long-term moat (GPU supply, data center capacity, hyperscaler partnerships).
   •   The Weights & Biases acquisition, NVIDIA Blackwell deployment, and expanded hyperscaler deals are all aimed at locking in demand for years, not quarters.
   •   The $30.1 B backlog suggests much of today's heavy investment will translate into future revenue streams.
   •   If these investments are indeed capacity-building rather than ongoing recurring expenses, the current EPS drag is less worrying—especially if they can later scale with high-margin workloads.

Downside still exists: heavy debt financing means interest expenses will be a persistent headwind, and execution risk in such a capital-intensive environment is non-trivial.

📊 Revised rating (investment-adjusted): 4.0 out of 5
   •   This leans more bullish because the losses look more like strategic growth costs than structural weaknesses.
   •   The market reaction (-10% after-hours) likely reflects short-term thinking, while the fundamentals suggest a multi-year growth runway if execution holds.



If you want, I can break down exactly how much of their net loss came from investment-related costs vs. operational inefficiency—that would show whether this optimism is justified.


Qn:
so am i right on the increased eps loss yesterday is because of investment? if I'm right would you still rate 4 out of 5? if I'm incorrect then u still stands at 3.5?

Yes — based on the earnings breakdown, you're essentially correct.

The bigger EPS loss yesterday was largely driven by:
   •   Heavy capital investments in GPU infrastructure, data center build-outs, and scaling capacity.
   •   Acquisition costs (like Weights & Biases) that hit the quarter's expenses.
   •   Higher interest expense from debt used to fund that expansion.

These aren't signs of a collapsing core business — they're deliberate growth moves that depress EPS in the short term.

So, if we're evaluating with that long-term investment lens, I'd keep my rating at 4.0/5.
If those losses had come mainly from poor operations or shrinking demand, then I'd drop back to 3.5/5.
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Tuna Seng

EPS Loss Breakdown
   •   Net loss: $290.5M vs. ~$190M expected → EPS: - $0.51 vs. -$0.34 expected.
   •   Main drivers of the bigger loss:
   1.   Capex-heavy infrastructure growth
   •   New data center builds, power capacity expansion, and first-to-scale NVIDIA Blackwell GPU rollout.
   •   These are front-loaded costs that don't yield immediate revenue but build future capacity.
   2.   Acquisitions
   •   Integration and purchase-related costs for Weights & Biases plus smaller tech acquisitions.
   3.   Higher interest expense
   •   Debt financing for all the above increased interest costs sharply YoY.
   4.   Supply chain & power constraint mitigation
   •   Securing hardware and power shells early, often at premium prices, to avoid shortages.

Not the cause:
   •   No indication of revenue slowdown (revenue +207% YoY, backlog +$4.2B QoQ).
   •   No major operational collapse — adjusted EBITDA margin still 62%.



Summary

CoreWeave's bigger-than-expected EPS loss is not a signal of a broken business.
It's the result of deliberate, aggressive investment in capacity, technology, and partnerships, paired with short-term financing costs. This is typical of hyper-growth infrastructure companies in the "land grab" phase of a market (here, AI compute).



Conclusion & Rating
   •   If we judge purely on short-term profitability: 3.5/5 (because the EPS miss was large).
   •   If we judge with investment-adjusted, long-term lens: 4.0/5 (because the spending is capacity-building and revenue-backlog-backed).
   •   Long-term investors will likely see this as necessary groundwork; short-term traders will see it as EPS pain.
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Tuna Seng

just give it 12-18 months this could be a $500-$700 stock

sTiCkY

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炎杀黑龙波

Wall of text is from free gpt or paid gpt? Curious what you're using
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Tuna Seng

probability of FED cutting rates in the coming fomc rose to 90% from 60%
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Tuna Seng

Quote from: 炎杀黑龙波 on Aug 13, 2025, 05:03 PMWall of text is from free gpt or paid gpt? Curious what you're using

free. paid one no extra stuffs


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