Will it happen again?
https://www.mewatch.sg/watch/Riding-The-Storm-E1-54064
The 1997 Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East and Southeast Asia during the late 1990s. The crisis began in Thailand in July 1997 before spreading to several other countries with a ripple effect, raising fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion.[1] However, the recovery in 1998–1999 was rapid, and worries of a meltdown quickly subsided.
Originating in Thailand, where it was known as the Tom Yum Kung crisis (Thai: วิกฤตต้มยำกุ้ง) on 2 July, it followed the financial collapse of the Thai baht after the Thai government was forced to float the baht due to lack of foreign currency to support its currency peg to the U.S. dollar. Capital flight ensued almost immediately, beginning an international chain reaction. At the time, Thailand had acquired a burden of foreign debt.[2] As the crisis spread, other Southeast Asian countries and later Japan and South Korea saw slumping currencies, devalued stock markets and other asset prices, and a precipitous rise in private debt.[3][4] Foreign debt-to-GDP ratios rose from 100% to 167% in the four large Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies in 1993–96, then shot up beyond 180% during the worst of the crisis. In South Korea, the ratios rose from 13% to 21% and then as high as 40%, while the other northern newly industrialized countries fared much better. Only in Thailand and South Korea did debt service-to-exports ratios rise.[5]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/asian-financial-crisis.asp#:~:text=The%20Asian%20financial%20crisis%20started,region%20falling%E2%80%94some%20quite%20catastrophically.
No
Quote from: default on Apr 10, 2024, 10:41 PMwhy leh what makes u think so?
Not this year at least still have several rate cuts up his sleeves
Quote from: Nevereatrice on Apr 10, 2024, 10:59 PMNot this year at least still have several rate cuts up his sleeves
i think everyone is thinking will rate cut or remain, what if he does something unthinkable?
Quote from: default on Apr 10, 2024, 11:21 PMi think everyone is thinking will rate cut or remain, what if he does something unthinkable?
Just think of it this way Rate cuts is used to save recession. He still heve several of them cards so no chance of recession
Rc too soon inflation will go up again. He keeps everyone guessing will prevent market from overheating which the idiots did by selling off when cpi data exceeds expectations.
This pe year he sure will cut for the face of the newly elected president
Quote from: Nevereatrice on Apr 10, 2024, 11:31 PMJust think of it this way Rate cuts is used to save recession. He still heve several of them cards so no chance of recession
Rc too soon inflation will go up again. He keeps everyone guessing will prevent market from overheating which the idiots did by selling off when cpi data exceeds expectations.
This pe year he sure will cut for the face of the newly elected president
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth/are-us-presidential-elections-bullish-or-bearish-markets
presidential elections only in Nov
you mean he will maintain markets for Biden more likely... i kind of disagree
Quote from: default on Apr 10, 2024, 11:40 PMpresidential elections only in Nov
you mean he will maintain markets for Biden more likely... i kind of disagree
At least he kept u guessing. He achieved what he wanted. He say rate cuts his colleagues come out occasionally to say na wont happen.
Good play by them
me thinks they will want to keep things peaceful before presidential elections, but not necessarily doing so to favour Biden
however, right now seems that that a lot of volatile things happening around the world........ AI, wars... very uncertain
u still very optimistic in the short medium term?
Won't happen again lah.
U can see pattern dollar pound euro oil gold n crypto.
Worst case scenario all crypto bros die 1 more time this time. This time dies will be really ham ka chan that type.
Quote from: bsg on Apr 10, 2024, 11:50 PMWon't happen again lah.
U can see pattern dollar pound euro oil gold n crypto.
Worst case scenario all crypto bros die 1 more time this time. This time dies will be really ham ka chan that type.
that time alr die until many coins drop to almost no value this time how to be worse. at most same nia
Quote from: default on Apr 10, 2024, 11:56 PMthat time alr die until many coins drop to almost no value this time how to be worse. at most same nia
No what. Where got all crypto died. All still holding btc n blowing balloon for it to explode 1 more final implosion.
This time btc implode surely very spectacular one. At least 50 pax jump floor that type within a month of the implosion.
Btw always a cycle one. 1 generation go merry go round. The next gen think it won't happen to them lololol.
Afc dotcom pound euro Lehman Mac and mae opec ftx
Can see quite obvious.
Those in their 30s are the current ones going to get hit this time
Quote from: default on Apr 10, 2024, 11:56 PMthat time alr die until many coins drop to almost no value this time how to be worse. at most same nia
When i trade i dont give a fuck about news and analysts view about a stock. News are just mere tools to manipulate the market. Don't read too much into it. Technical analysis execution and macro events is more important.
https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/chinese-cement-maker-halted-after-99-crash-in-15-minutes.7018367/
will impact elsewhr bo?
.
think too much liao.
just see what the charts tell u .
dun need to 2nd guess the market.
Moi luckily overcome the crisis making monthly payments to bank. They were merciless in 1997. Maybe they not so during Lehmann. So, don't think so now.
Even if Thai tioed, we should be resilient if we had started to reduce debt ever since interest rate had been adjusted up so many times.
Last time the tv serial not bad leh... posted in first link..
你是猪啊？
Quote from: Suntan on Apr 11, 2024, 03:02 PMMoi luckily overcome the crisis making monthly payments to bank. They were merciless in 1997. Maybe they not so during Lehmann. So, don't think so now.
Even if Thai tioed, we should be resilient if we had started to reduce debt ever since interest rate had been adjusted up so many times.
I got a bad feeling sth of that level will unravel before year end... dunno why just a very naggy feeling like sth not very right :frown:
But me is noob so say say nia... a broken clock is right twice a day
Quote from: default on Apr 11, 2024, 06:47 PMI got a bad feeling sth of that level will unravel before year end... dunno why just a very naggy feeling like sth not very right :frown:
But me is noob so say say nia... a broken clock is right twice a day
Farnie tis taim moi didn't hv any unnerving feeling.
The 97 crisis the stock market was really bullish around June & I didn't hv many stock but moi stock kept on going up. So, I quickly sold all moi 4 lots. Didn't get the highest but the next week started to fall like crazy. Could not believe the crash was so fast. So it's syndicates stirring & abandoning. We juz small players can get burned by these syndicates.
Moi had a bad feeling when read a small portion of article regarding American abandoning their mortgage house in 2009 & bank got to kope while observing oil prices was going up till US$172 as moi work indirectly linked to oil. Then moi quickly sold off stocks. Now don't hv such feeling. Maybe can't hv six sense all the time :s22:
Quote from: Suntan on Apr 11, 2024, 09:08 PMFarnie tis taim moi didn't hv any unnerving feeling.
The 97 crisis the stock market was really bullish around June & I didn't hv many stock but moi stock kept on going up. So, I quickly sold all moi 4 lots. Didn't get the highest but the next week started to fall like crazy. Could not believe the crash was so fast. So it's syndicates stirring & abandoning. We juz small players can get burned by these syndicates.
Moi had a bad feeling when read a small portion of article regarding American abandoning their mortgage house in 2009 & bank got to kope while observing oil prices was going up till US$172 as moi work indirectly linked to oil. Then moi quickly sold off stocks. Now don't hv such feeling. Maybe can't hv six sense all the time :s22:
Think u shd be right bah, u and
@Nevereatrice are experts traded for decades
Based on cpi data inflation rose to 3.5% which is far from FED's 2% target
The surest way is to put the economy down to mild recession to reach the 2% target
But recession will be saved by rate cuts.
Powell still has many rate cuts card in his pocket so there won't be a crisis.
However FED's goal is to achieve 2% with a soft landing without putting the economy into a recession
Quote from: Nevereatrice on Apr 12, 2024, 12:11 AMBased on cpi data inflation rose to 3.5% which is far from FED's 2% target
The surest way is to put the economy down to mild recession to reach the 2% target
But recession will be saved by rate cuts.
Powell still has many rate cuts card in his pocket so there won't be a crisis.
However FED's goal is to achieve 2% with a soft landing without putting the economy into a recession
i dont think it's working the way they want leh, most likely will go the paul volcker way somehow. they are just prolonging the inevitable from happening
Quote from: default on Apr 12, 2024, 01:11 AMi dont think it's working the way they want leh, most likely will go the paul volcker way somehow. they are just prolonging the inevitable from happening
Nobody can tell bro whether got recession or not. adjust your trading strategy and adapt to the market accordingly
No use worrying about the unforseen and the stuffs u don't have control over
Having a strong Psychology is huge part of coming out successful or not.
.
Quote from: Nevereatrice on Apr 12, 2024, 12:11 AMBased on cpi data inflation rose to 3.5% which is far from FED's 2% target
The surest way is to put the economy down to mild recession to reach the 2% target
But recession will be saved by rate cuts.
Powell still has many rate cuts card in his pocket so there won't be a crisis.
However FED's goal is to achieve 2% with a soft landing without putting the economy into a recession
When you say like this, what exactly is a recession objectively? If let's say an economy is already in recession as in economy contracts as a whole but I reduce interest rates or even make it negative interest rates, the economy will suddenly not be in recession?
Quote from: default on Apr 11, 2024, 09:22 PMThink u shd be right bah, u and @Nevereatrice are experts traded for decades
Moi not a trader but investor for dividends. There were a few stocks at above $40/lot, good dividend den. Very high risk if drop. Moi got no taim punt the market full taim due to full taim job. So, just buy blue chips.
The 2 very important indicators are interest rates and oil prices. Moi long term interest has always been economics and biz, not financial markets and its instruments. :D
The rest such as stock and property are purely stirring by syndicates and property agents. Buyers just irrational. These had gone to become Irrational Markets. :frown:
Quote from: Philipkee on Apr 12, 2024, 06:55 AMWhen you say like this, what exactly is a recession objectively? If let's say an economy is already in recession as in economy contracts as a whole but I reduce interest rates or even make it negative interest rates, the economy will suddenly not be in recession?
I not professional economist but if recession first signal is financial market will crash and go into bear market.
10 yr treasury yield will invert and uninvert based on past recession, massive unemployment
Recent data release shows employment went up companies are still hiring unemployment rate little changes. Us economy is still growing
bc ath at 70k
Fed has already raised the rates to 5.5% which makes borrowing for companies costly.
If recession rate cuts will reduce it to 0% to save the economy based on past history.
There are other fiscal policies card haven't used yet.
Now the market is obsessed with rate cut instead of worrying about recession.
Now No rate cuts=drop
Last time hike=drop
The Market is stupid these are just noises you should ignore if you don't know what you are doing and what's going on you will be worrying about the wrong things everyday
Look at Nvidia drop to 830 recently because of a mere cpi data. stupidity now back up at 907.
Unemployment rly low in US? With retrenchments?
Quote from: default on Apr 12, 2024, 12:14 PMUnemployment rly low in US? With retrenchments?
Unemployed has welfare unlike here by household. Food essentials low cost.
Their economy self-sufficient for food.
Quote from: Nevereatrice on Apr 12, 2024, 09:59 AMI not professional economist but if recession first signal is financial market will crash and go into bear market.
10 yr treasury yield will invert and uninvert based on past recession, massive unemployment
Recent data release shows employment went up companies are still hiring unemployment rate little changes. Us economy is still growing
bc ath at 70k
Fed has already raised the rates to 5.5% which makes borrowing for companies costly.
If recession rate cuts will reduce it to 0% to save the economy based on past history.
There are other fiscal policies card haven't used yet.
Now the market is obsessed with rate cut instead of worrying about recession.
Now No rate cuts=drop
Last time hike=drop
The Market is stupid these are just noises you should ignore if you don't know what you are doing and what's going on you will be worrying about the wrong things everyday
Look at Nvidia drop to 830 recently because of a mere cpi data. stupidity now back up at 907.
Read before that market is emotion driven.
Why a stock price rises and falls a lot has to do with sentiments as opposed to actual profit and losses. Same for economy. If everyone tightens their belt the recession happens when actually everyone still have the same amount of cash and jobs. But if everyone tightens too much for too long based merely on sentiment, recession becomes a self fulfilling prophecy
Quote from: Philipkee on Apr 12, 2024, 05:10 PMRead before that market is emotion driven.
Why a stock price rises and falls a lot has to do with sentiments as opposed to actual profit and losses. Same for economy. If everyone tightens their belt the recession happens when actually everyone still have the same amount of cash and jobs. But if everyone tightens too much for too long based merely on sentiment, recession becomes a self fulfilling prophecy
Yea. Consumer sentiment is always a major factor in investment.
Right now the 3 defensive assets oil gold usd very high indicates the sentiment towards inflation is not so good we might see some more rate hikes from FED if the April data is not favorable
the world is deferring the next economic crisis fyi...
Quote from: Shiori on Apr 12, 2024, 09:22 PMthe world is deferring the next economic crisis fyi...
I heard it was supposed to happen a few years ago but covid stopped it in the sense that it caused an economic crisis that was blamed on Covid instead of economic factors. Now that Covid is over, the economic issues are showing themselves
Quote from: default on Apr 12, 2024, 12:14 PMUnemployment rly low in US? With retrenchments?
dont believe everything CNN says.
unemployment in US is counted differently - its based on a week long survey of people
to be counted as unemployed u must not have a job and have been actively looking for a job over a 4 week period.
'looking for job' means must have gotten an interview etc.
if these 2 are not met, u will be pushed into the "not in workforce" group which does not count into the unemployed stats.
:s22: :s22: :s22:
Quote from: Philipkee on Apr 12, 2024, 09:41 PMI heard it was supposed to happen a few years ago but covid stopped it in the sense that it caused an economic crisis that was blamed on Covid instead of economic factors. Now that Covid is over, the economic issues are showing themselves
that is correct, i agree with u
Cpi will show inflation still same bah