In 2024, economic uncertainty remains prevalent, with divergent forecasts among economists regarding the global economy's trajectory. According to the January 2024 Chief Economists Outlook by the World Economic Forum, while some economists anticipate further weakening, others foresee stabilization or improvement.

This uncertainty has persisted over the past year amid sluggish global economic activity, tight financial conditions, and escalating geopolitical tensions. Despite forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of a slight decline in global growth to 2.9% in 2024, driven mainly by emerging markets, advanced economies continue to experience tepid growth.

However, there are signs of moderation in inflation expectations across regions, along with expectations for loosening labor markets and financial conditions throughout the year.

Geopolitical tensions are a unanimous concern among economists, with nearly seven in ten predicting an acceleration in geoeconomic fragmentation, leading to increased volatility in the global economy and stock markets. This fragmentation could manifest in heightened localization efforts, the strengthening of geoeconomic blocs, and a growing disparity between the Global North and South.

The potential repercussions of increased trade restrictions are substantial, with the IMF warning of a potential 7% loss in global economic output, disproportionately affecting low-income economies.

Regional growth dynamics are already diverging, with South and East Asia expected to maintain buoyant activity, albeit with China's growth outlook shifting from strong to moderate. Conversely, Europe faces weakened growth prospects, as do the US and the Middle East and North Africa.

Generative AI, a rapidly advancing technology, is expected to have a significant impact on various sectors of the economy. Economists anticipate its disruptive potential to accelerate by the end of 2024, particularly in advanced economies where gains in productivity are expected to be more immediate.

Despite the anticipation of productivity benefits, there are concerns about widening economic and technological disparities between advanced and low-income countries due to differential rates of AI adoption.

As discussions at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, revolve around the need for a new growth model that prioritizes innovation, inclusion, sustainability, and resilience, there is a growing consensus among international organizations, CEOs, policymakers, and economists to align on a new vision for global growth. This initiative will address various topics, including industrial strategies, monetary policy decisions, job outlooks, and advancements in AI and manufacturing.